Election Vulnerability
How secure is each councillor’s seat? Vulnerability scores combine majority size, turnout trends, and swing calculations to estimate which seats are most competitive heading into the next election.
Party Overview
Liberal Democrat
Seats26
Avg score55
At risk9
Reform UK
Seats23
Avg score67
At risk16
Independent
Seats16
Avg score59
At risk6
Conservative
Seats7
Avg score73
At risk6
Labour & Cooperative Party
Seats4
Avg score69
At risk3
Green Party
Seats3
Avg score80
At risk2
Cornish Independent Nonaligned Group
Seats3
Avg score71
At risk2
Mebyon Kernow
Seats3
Avg score63
At risk0
Independent Non Aligned
Seats1
Avg score82
At risk1
86 councillors
| Councillor | Ward | Party | Majority | Majority % | Turnout % | Score▼ | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Creek | Newquay Trenance | Green Party | 7 | 0.5% | 6.4% | 93 | Toss-up |
| Karen La Borde | Gloweth, Malabar & Shortlanesend | Green Party | 68 | 5.2% | 7.8% | 83 | Vulnerable |
| Peter La Broy | Bude | Independent | 43 | 2.4% | 5.5% | 83 | Vulnerable |
| James Ball | Camborne Roskear & Tuckingmill | Independent | 61 | 4.8% | 7.8% | 82 | Vulnerable |
| Anna Thomason-Kenyon | Constantine, Mabe & Mawnan | Cornish Independent Nonaligned Group | 13 | 0.7% | 5.5% | 82 | Vulnerable |
| Pauline Giles | St Blazey | Independent Non Aligned | 57 | 3.6% | 6.2% | 82 | Vulnerable |
| Kevin Grey | Liskeard Central | Reform UK | 12 | 0.7% | 6.2% | 81 | Vulnerable |
| Martyn Alvey | Feock & Kea | Conservative | 101 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 81 | Vulnerable |
| Jordan Rowse | St Austell Bethel & Holmbush | Conservative | 138 | 7.3% | 5.2% | 80 | Vulnerable |
| Jane Pascoe | Liskeard South & Dobwalls | Conservative | 204 | 9.0% | 4.4% | 80 | Vulnerable |
| Paul Cador | Saltash Trematon & Landrake | Reform UK | 9 | 0.5% | 5.2% | 79 | Vulnerable |
| Jay Hodgetts | Porthleven, Breage & Germoe | Liberal Democrat | 47 | 2.0% | 4.3% | 77 | Vulnerable |
| Debra Clegg | Falmouth Boslowick | Labour & Cooperative Party | 35 | 2.0% | 5.9% | 77 | Vulnerable |
| Steven Webb | Truro Moresk & Trehaverne | Liberal Democrat | 29 | 1.5% | 5.1% | 76 | Vulnerable |
| John Thomas MBE | Lanner, Stithians & Gwennap | Independent | 56 | 3.1% | 5.6% | 75 | Vulnerable |
| Mark Gibbons | Looe East & Deviock | Independent | 259 | 13.4% | 5.2% | 75 | Vulnerable |
| Jim Candy | Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos & Lanteglos | Liberal Democrat | 29 | 1.5% | 5.3% | 74 | Vulnerable |
| Elaine Kist | St Stephen-In-Brannel | Reform UK | 189 | 10.7% | 5.8% | 74 | Vulnerable |
| Louise Blackman | Perranporth | Reform UK | 98 | 5.0% | 5.1% | 74 | Vulnerable |
| Ian Wilson | Fowey, Tywardreath & Par | Reform UK | 200 | 10.0% | 5.0% | 74 | Vulnerable |
| Joanna Kenny | Newquay Central & Pentire | Liberal Democrat | 40 | 2.7% | 6.8% | 74 | Vulnerable |
| Angus Black | Calstock | Reform UK | 59 | 2.4% | 4.2% | 73 | Vulnerable |
| Richard Barker | St Newlyn East, Cubert & Goonhavern | Reform UK | 119 | 5.7% | 4.8% | 72 | Vulnerable |
| Jim Gale | Lynher | Reform UK | 90 | 4.2% | 4.6% | 72 | Vulnerable |
| Keith Johnson | Saltash Tamar | Reform UK | 46 | 2.5% | 5.5% | 71 | Vulnerable |
| Connor Donnithorne | Redruth Central, Carharrack & St Day | Conservative | 280 | 14.6% | 5.2% | 71 | Vulnerable |
| Alan Rowe | Falmouth Penwerris | Labour & Cooperative Party | 170 | 11.8% | 6.9% | 71 | Vulnerable |
| Julie Cunningham | St Mewan & Grampound | Reform UK | 20 | 1.0% | 5.2% | 71 | Vulnerable |
| Rowland O'Connor | St Columb Major, St Mawgan & St Wenn | Cornish Independent Nonaligned Group | 57 | 3.4% | 6.0% | 70 | Vulnerable |
| Jamie Hanlon | Penwithick & Boscoppa | Reform UK | 71 | 4.4% | 6.2% | 70 | Vulnerable |
| Sean Smith | St Cleer & Menheniot | Reform UK | 101 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 70 | Vulnerable |
| Jack Yelland | St Austell Central & Gover | Reform UK | 111 | 6.6% | 6.0% | 70 | Vulnerable |
| Mark Burnett | Camelford & Boscastle | Liberal Democrat | 226 | 10.6% | 4.7% | 69 | Vulnerable |
| Kevin Towill | Newquay Porth & Tretherras | Reform UK | 217 | 11.7% | 5.4% | 69 | Vulnerable |
| Andrew Mitchell | St Ives West & Towednack | Independent | 162 | 8.7% | 5.4% | 69 | Vulnerable |
| Dulcie Tudor | Threemilestone & Chacewater | Independent | 103 | 6.9% | 6.6% | 69 | Vulnerable |
| Karen Glasson | Probus & St Erme | Conservative | 172 | 9.8% | 5.7% | 69 | Vulnerable |
| Nicola Boase | Helston South & Meneage | Liberal Democrat | 189 | 10.9% | 5.7% | 68 | Vulnerable |
| Rob Parsonage | Torpoint | Conservative | 216 | 11.6% | 5.3% | 67 | Vulnerable |
| Cliff Crawford | Illogan & Portreath | Reform UK | 148 | 8.0% | 5.5% | 67 | Vulnerable |
| Juliet Line | Ludgvan, Madron, Gulval & Heamoor | Liberal Democrat | 102 | 4.0% | 3.9% | 67 | Vulnerable |
| Damon Dennis | Launceston South | Liberal Democrat | 65 | 4.2% | 6.4% | 67 | Vulnerable |
| Rosie Moore | Wadebridge East & St Minver | Liberal Democrat | 304 | 14.2% | 4.6% | 66 | Vulnerable |
| Sally Harrison | Redruth South | Reform UK | 86 | 5.2% | 6.0% | 66 | Vulnerable |
| Laurie Magowan | Falmouth Arwenack | Labour & Cooperative Party | 217 | 12.3% | 5.7% | 66 | Vulnerable |
| Andrew Long | Callington & St Dominic | Mebyon Kernow | 153 | 7.6% | 5.0% | 65 | Competitive |
| James Mustoe | Mevagissey & St Austell Bay | Conservative | 620 | 30.2% | 4.9% | 65 | Competitive |
| Rob Heslington | Gwinear-Gwithian & Hayle East | Reform UK | 214 | 11.6% | 5.3% | 65 | Competitive |
| Dean Evans | Penryn | Green Party | 171 | 10.1% | 6.0% | 65 | Competitive |
| Luke Rogers | St Ives East, Lelant & Carbis Bay | Liberal Democrat | 320 | 14.2% | 4.4% | 63 | Competitive |
| Tim Dwelly | Penzance East | Independent | 281 | 16.6% | 5.9% | 62 | Competitive |
| John Martin | Long Rock, Marazion & St Erth | Liberal Democrat | 380 | 15.4% | 4.0% | 62 | Competitive |
| Dick Cole | St Dennis & St Enoder | Mebyon Kernow | 458 | 26.7% | 5.8% | 62 | Competitive |
| Faye Emery | Stratton, Kilkhampton & Morwenstow | Liberal Democrat | 284 | 14.0% | 4.9% | 61 | Competitive |
| Loveday Jenkin | Crowan, Sithney & Wendron | Mebyon Kernow | 322 | 15.3% | 4.8% | 61 | Competitive |
| Adam Paynter | Launceston North & North Petherwin | Independent | 352 | 15.3% | 4.3% | 61 | Competitive |
| Steve Trevelyan | Roche & Bugle | Reform UK | 221 | 12.8% | 5.8% | 60 | Competitive |
| Rory Gow | Mullion & St Keverne | Liberal Democrat | 389 | 15.0% | 3.8% | 60 | Competitive |
| Kate Ewert | Rame Peninsula & St Germans | Labour & Cooperative Party | 516 | 18.1% | 3.5% | 60 | Competitive |
| Karen Knight | Camborne West & Treswithian | Cornish Independent Nonaligned Group | 295 | 17.3% | 5.8% | 60 | Competitive |
| Paul Ashton | St Austell Poltair & Mount Charles | Reform UK | 306 | 18.8% | 6.1% | 58 | Competitive |
| Peter Channon | Hayle West | Reform UK | 264 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 57 | Competitive |
| Paul White | Camborne Trelowarren | Independent | 372 | 23.1% | 6.2% | 57 | Competitive |
| David Saunby | Falmouth Trescobeas & Budock | Independent | 321 | 16.8% | 5.2% | 57 | Competitive |
| Chris Batters | Lanivet, Blisland & Bodmin St Lawrence | Liberal Democrat | 340 | 16.5% | 4.8% | 57 | Competitive |
| Jim McKenna | Penzance Promenade | Independent | 520 | 25.7% | 5.0% | 54 | Competitive |
| Nicky Chopak | Poundstock | Liberal Democrat | 328 | 16.3% | 5.0% | 54 | Competitive |
| Mike Thomas | Helston North | Independent | 303 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 53 | Competitive |
| Bruce Craze | Four Lanes, Beacon & Troon | Reform UK | 411 | 27.4% | 6.7% | 50 | Competitive |
| Rob Nolan | Truro Boscawen & Redannick | Liberal Democrat | 369 | 21.4% | 5.8% | 49 | Competitive |
| Hilary Frank | Saltash Essa | Liberal Democrat | 406 | 20.4% | 5.1% | 48 | Competitive |
| Ruth Gripper | Mylor, Perranarworthal & Ponsanooth | Liberal Democrat | 745 | 28.4% | 3.8% | 47 | Competitive |
| James O'Keefe | Padstow | Liberal Democrat | 439 | 24.4% | 5.6% | 47 | Competitive |
| Roger Tarrant | Redruth North | Reform UK | 344 | 25.1% | 7.3% | 46 | Competitive |
| Brian Clemens | Land's End | Independent | 737 | 31.4% | 4.2% | 45 | Likely hold |
| Sarah Preece | Lostwithiel & Lanreath | Liberal Democrat | 418 | 20.1% | 4.8% | 43 | Likely hold |
| Julian German | St Goran, Tregony & the Roseland | Independent | 791 | 37.8% | 4.8% | 43 | Likely hold |
| Susanne Desmonde | Pool & Tehidy | Reform UK | 495 | 34.2% | 7.0% | 42 | Likely hold |
| David Garrigan | St Teath & Tintagel | Liberal Democrat | 526 | 24.8% | 4.7% | 41 | Likely hold |
| Dan Rogerson | Bodmin St Mary's & St Leonard | Liberal Democrat | 403 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 40 | Likely hold |
| Loic Rich | Truro Tregolls | Independent | 1,094 | 59.9% | 5.5% | 39 | Likely hold |
| Thalia Marrington | Mousehole, Newlyn & St Buryan | Liberal Democrat | 560 | 27.9% | 5.0% | 36 | Likely hold |
| Pete Mitchell | St Agnes | Liberal Democrat | 802 | 43.1% | 5.4% | 32 | Likely hold |
| Adrian Parsons | Altarnun & Stoke Climsland | Liberal Democrat | 990 | 36.5% | 3.7% | 30 | Likely hold |
| Robin Moorcroft | Wadebridge West & St Mabyn | Independent | 1,118 | 50.7% | 4.5% | 27 | Likely hold |
| Leigh Frost | Bodmin St Petroc's | Liberal Democrat | 651 | 38.5% | 5.9% | 26 | Likely hold |
Methodology
The vulnerability score (0–100) is calculated from several factors: the winning councillor’s majority as a percentage of votes cast, voter turnout trends compared to the ward average, the number of candidates who stood, and the swing needed for the seat to change hands.
Score bands: Safe (0–20), Likely hold (21–40), Competitive (41–60), Vulnerable (61–80), Toss-up (81–100).
Higher scores indicate greater electoral vulnerability. Seats marked “at risk” have a score above 65. Trend indicators show whether the councillor’s position has improved, declined, or remained stable compared to previous elections.
This analysis is for informational purposes and is not a prediction of election outcomes. Actual results depend on many factors not captured in historical data.